Upfront: I support Barack Obama.
Also: I'm not calling for Hillary to step down right now.
However, I understand that Hillary has said she will take her campaign all the way to the August convention. That, Mrs. Clinton, is a sure way to a republican presidential win in November.
Here's why: In 2004, John Kerry didn't set up his campaign office in Wisconsin until sometime in late July, early August. And Wisconsin was (and still is) a swing state. Wisconsin stayed blue by the very narrowest of margins due to the hard work of outside groups like MoveOn. I can allow that we could hit the ground running here in June if the superdelegates vote immediately after the last primaries are held on June 3, but we cannot get the apparatus in place for a presidential campaign that begins at the end of August.
I worked on three campaigns in 2004: Feingold's, Kerry's and the GOTV effort of MoveOn. (I kept the three distinctly separate-according to campaign law btw). Russ Feingold has a great machine. MoveOn used an intensive precinct-centered get out the vote effort that was highly organized and highly effective. Campaigning for Kerry was like being given a few brochures and told to walk around some neighborhoods handing them out.
We democrats know how to get our people elected. But first we need to get organized. And the time to get organized is now. And, Hillary, we need a nominee and a campaign much earlier than August to do it. Howard Dean's 50 state strategy is a good one. It worked in 2006 and is working this year (Dennis Hastert's seat comes to mind). And we need the coat-tail victories to keep the congress. There's so much more at stake here than Hillary's personal aspirations.
But statements like these don't lead me to believe that Hillary Clinton has the best interests of anyone but Hillary Clinton in mind. I'm sorry about that.
15 comments:
As much as I dislike this situation right now - it could be worse. Hillary could have won hands down from the beginning.
On the other hand, find it hard to believe that any Democrat could lose right now. I think that despite what the press and the polls say, I think that a lawn chair could beat McCain. Just look at the huge disparity in the fundraising of the Republican vs. the Democratic candidates, as well as the disparity in voter turnout.
Dr. Z, you are my favorite optimist. However, we didn't think there was any way Bush could win twice. Or once for that matter.
Another outstanding post from the blog of Jess Wundrun. Brilliant.
I am coming around - veeeerrrrry slowly- to supporing Barack Obama. I am not at all happy with Hillary Clinton. In fact, I am rather distinctly unhappy with her.
And while I love Dr. Z's optimism, I agree with Jess' midwestern sensibility and reservation.
Things like the Randi Rhodes whore debacle, which was just stupid of her and divisive all the way around, things like Ferraro running of to Fox to blast back - these are like the twin cancers that eat at the organs of our party.
That is how elections can be lost. And that is what worries me.
**sigh** you're probably right. It's going to be a Diebold wedding.
I share your concern, Jess. This election is so important, it can't be sacrificed at the altar of personality.
And dang if you didn't nail it. The impossible has happened twice. Why would we think anything is outside the realm of possibility?
Great post. I fear that Hilary Clinton would rather see McCain win, and preserve her chances of running again in 2012, rather than see Obama get the nomination.
dr. zaius, a hint of pessimism? From you? Randal is going to faint! ;-)
If enough people - a huge, monstrous, colossal, cyclopean if - vote for Obama to make it theft-proof, then we shall be lucky. If it's within a few percentage points, then we should fully expect the Diebold HAL 9000 to work overtime.
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the media will ensure that this race is close --- they will not want to have NOTHING to talk about for 3 months -- if it means making McCain the Saint of all saints -- they will do it
i can see the Scarborough and Hannity scripts already
and remember -- polls are meaningless -- it is the electoral vote
Great post.
Something that's been bugging me lately is that there have been real efforts at reconciliation between Clinton and Obama supporters lately at some of the big progressive blogs like Kos and Mydd but that sentiment is quickly pushed aside in favor of the outrageous surrogate statement of the day.
It's going to take a little while after this is decided to bring the party together and weed out the bad actors we know are just trying (and succeeding) to stir stuff up among democrats. That's why I get a little anxious about the race continuing which plays into your post.
It's looking more and more like Obama's going to get the Democratic nomination.
John McCain is thrilled.
He couldn't dream up a weaker opponent.
Obama, by the fact of being born to a muslim father, was a muslim at birth. He swears he's not a muslim. He swears he's a Christian. His membership in the Unity Church in Chicago is his proof.
One problem. Reverend Wright praised Louis Farrakhan. Farrakhan is one black leader who hates the US more than Wright, as if anyone thought such a thing were possible.
Obama has a wife who said her husband's candidacy was the first event in her life that gave her pride in her country. Even though her country made it possible for her to attend Princeton and Harvard.
This woman was clearly an Affirmative Action student. Her Senior Thesis from Princeton was made avaiable. There was nothing impressive about it. Nothing. She may be reasonably intelligent, but I'll bet her SAT schools were low. Too low for a white student hoping to attend Princeton.
Then there's the next issue he will face. Reparations. Obama already stated he wants an increase in the Capital Gains Tax Rate.
Capital gains are a distinctly white form of income. Hence, a tax on capital gains is a tax on whites.
It will take no time at all during the regular campaign before this issue is spun into his stealth attempt to obtain Reparations payments by way of this white tax. He will spend part of every day till November claiming he opposes Reparations, which will put him at odds with black voters who hold out hope for receiving a big check to compensate for slavery.
As a result, white voters will see Obama as the candidate who will, if given the chance, impose the biggest tax in history on whites.
In response, Obama will lose as though he were running against George Washington himself.
texas,
Thanks for the gigles! Okay if I throw a little constructive criticism your way?
The McCain as George Washington bit was a little too much. Maybe dial it back a little next time. Other than that - nicely done, sir.
Wow. That was full of gigglyicious goodness wasn't it?
Texas says that Obama is weak and then posts virtually nothing about the candidate himself.
His wife is dumb? That's the best you got, Texas? Let's just leave that one alone, shall we? You've got a Pickles and a Cindy McCain in your hand. 'Nuff said.
You don't like the statements of his minister? I think that (a) that's been handily rebutted by Obama himself, and (b) McCain's got loads shadier religious zealots surrounding him.
Oh, and the polls still show Obama will beat McCain.
And my republican relatives and friends are looking forward to casting their vote for Obama. Bushconservatives have to hold their nose to vote McCain.
Best of luck with your delusions.
You have done a nice job of explaining, or I guess describing the situation. I really agree with you.
Great post, Jess. I share all of your concerns.
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